Climate Change Intensifies Risk of Devastating Floods in Sikkim Himalaya

August 7, 2024

Climate Change Intensifies Risk of Devastating Floods in Sikkim Himalaya

A lake surrounded by snow covered mountains with tin roof huts and a road along its perimeter in the foreground under blue skies and white clouds..
Snow covered terrain mirrored at Tsomgo Lake situated in East Sikkim, India.

A recent study published in the journal Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, led by the Byrd Center's Postdoctoral Scholar Saurabh Kaushik highlights the increasing threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Sikkim region of the Eastern Himalaya. The research reveals that climate change significantly exacerbates the risk of these potentially catastrophic events, posing a serious danger to local communities and infrastructure.

The study, conducted by a team of international researchers, updated the inventory of glacial lakes in the Sikkim Himalaya, identifying 232 lakes covering an area of over 22 square kilometers. Using advanced mapping techniques, the team assessed the risk levels of these lakes, discovering that Khanchung Lake is the most dangerous, with potential peak discharges of up to 9504 cubic meters per second in extreme scenarios. South Lhonak Lake also poses a high risk, with peak discharges estimated at 8421 cubic meters per second.

Location map of Sikkim

Map of Sikkim Boundary complete with insert outline of the larger area. The colorful brown, orange, green and blue map also includes elevation and rivers and a legend of features along with a north arrow.
The inset map shows the location Sikkim. The Glacial Lakes marked with red polygon (A: Changsang Lake, B: South Lhonak lake, C: Yongdi Lake, D: Ponggu La Lake, E: Za La lake, F: Gurudongmar Lake, and G: Khanchung Lake).

The increasing number and size of glacial lakes due to climate change significantly heighten the risk of outburst floods. The study's simulations indicate that even the least dangerous lake, Yongdi Lake, could cause significant flooding, with potential discharges affecting the town of Chungthang. The research highlights the imminent threat to approximately 1900 settlements, five bridges, and two hydropower plants in the region.

The data generated from this study provide critical insights that can help local authorities implement effective strategies to mitigate the impact of GLOFs. The study calls for early warning systems and measures to prevent breaches in the most hazardous lakes.

A large map with a stream network with three inserts in a column to the right of the big map generated over the Sikkim Himalaya.
A large map of Sikkim Himalaya with eight inserts maps of glacial lakes in two columns and four rows on the right.
Four hydrographs in two columns showing the most dangerous glacial lakes in Sikkim exhibiting peak discharges for two different scenarios
Short black line with an arrow pointed down at the bottom.
A map with a long X-axis, showing the linear trend and inter-annual variability during April 2002–May 2023.
Two graphs- side by side showing total precipitation, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature on a seasonal scale from 1990 to 2017.

Evident increasing risk of GLOF under warming climate and ice mass loss. Visit the link for a detailed description.

The Ohio State University research team included Professors Ian Howat and Joachim Moortgat from the School of Earth Sciences, and principal investigators at the Byrd Center, as well as Postdoctoral Scholar Jaydeo K. Dharpure. International collaborators included Mohammd Rafiq from the Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change in New Delhi, P.K. Joshi from Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, Tejpal Singh from the CSIR-Central Scientific Instrument Organisation in Chandigarh, and Andreas J. Dietz from the German Remote Sensing Data Center & German Aerospace Center in Wessling, Germany.

This vital research underscores the urgency of addressing climate-induced hazards. It provides a practical framework for mitigating risks and protecting the lives and livelihoods of those in the Sikkim Himalaya region.

While Kaushik completed this research at Ohio State, he is now a postdoctoral researcher at the Social Pixel lab at the University of Arizona, Tucson. 

To learn more about this research, visit "Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst flood in Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya under climate warming."

 

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